It's fair to say you're not a supporter. That's okay.

What the Evidence Shows

The ONS figures (June 2024) confirm Wales had a net fiscal deficit of £21.5bn in 2022–23, with public spending of £18,426 per person versus revenue of £11,538 per person. However, these figures include spending on reserved matters that Wales has no control over — including UK defence commitments, foreign affairs, and national debt interest payments. An independent Wales would make its own spending decisions. Ireland had a comparable fiscal position before independence in 1922 and is now one of Europe's wealthiest nations, with GDP per capita exceeding $100,000. The deficit also reflects decades of underinvestment in the Welsh economy under UK governance. Fiscal positions are not fixed — they are the product of policy choices.

What the Evidence Shows

Currency is a genuine policy question — not an insurmountable barrier. Options include: (1) a new Welsh pound, pegged or floating; (2) a currency union with the rest of the UK, as Ireland used sterling from 1922 to 1979; (3) eventual Euro membership after meeting EU criteria. Scotland's independence movement has explored all these options in detail. Many small nations have successfully managed currency transitions. The key factors are political will, economic planning, and transition management. Ireland's currency transition from sterling to the punt (1979) and then to the Euro (2002) was managed without lasting economic disruption.

What the Evidence Shows

Wales would remain geographically adjacent to England, with strong economic incentives on both sides to maintain open trade. The UK–Ireland relationship is instructive: two independent nations share a land border, maintain a Common Travel Area, and sustain deep trade ties despite different regulatory regimes. Wales exports significant amounts of renewable energy and water to England — an independent Wales would have genuine leverage in trade negotiations. EU membership, which many independence supporters favour, would open new markets and provide a broader trade framework. Geographic trade patterns are driven by proximity and comparative advantage, not constitutional status.

What the Evidence Shows

Many small European nations maintain effective defence forces at a fraction of the UK's defence budget. Wales currently contributes to UK defence spending (included in the fiscal deficit figures) but has no control over how that money is spent. An independent Wales could join NATO, as other small European nations have done — including Estonia, Latvia, and Iceland. Countries like Ireland successfully maintain neutrality. Defence spending could be calibrated to Wales's actual security needs rather than the UK's global military posture. The 'nuclear deterrent' and overseas bases that account for a significant portion of UK defence spending would not be Wales's responsibility.

What the Evidence Shows

Healthcare is already devolved — Wales has run NHS Wales independently since 1999. The quality and direction of Welsh healthcare is already in Welsh hands. State pensions are a matter of policy, not geography: an independent Welsh government would set its own pension policy. The UK state pension is funded from current taxation, not a savings pot — an independent Wales would simply continue paying pensions from its own tax revenues, as all independent nations do. Scotland's independence white paper (2014) set out detailed plans for pension continuity, demonstrating that transition planning is achievable.

What the Evidence Shows

Small independent nations consistently attract high levels of foreign direct investment. Ireland, with a population similar to Wales, attracts more FDI than many larger nations — it is the European headquarters for Google, Apple, Meta, and dozens of major multinationals. Wales already has its own investment agency (Invest Wales). Independence would give Wales full control over corporation tax, business rates, and investment incentives — powerful tools currently reserved to Westminster. The Welsh Government's economic strategy has been constrained by limited fiscal powers. Research on small nations consistently finds that independence increases economic agility and attractiveness to investment.

What the Evidence Shows

There are 193 UN member states. Many are substantially smaller than Wales: Iceland (370,000), Luxembourg (660,000), Malta (530,000), Estonia (1.3 million), Latvia (1.8 million), Slovenia (2.1 million), North Macedonia (2 million). All are functioning, prosperous democracies. Academic research by Adam Price at Harvard Kennedy School — 'The Flotilla Effect' — found small EU nations enjoyed 50% export growth versus 35% for larger states over 2000–2008, and closed the GDP per capita growth gap by almost two-thirds over 13 years. Economist Xavier Sala-i-Martin (Columbia University) concluded that 'as time goes by, the desirability of having smaller nations increases.'